Steiner Ranch Housing Report - July 2022

We're seeing a drastic market shift in Steiner Ranch ​​and I explain everything I'm seeing in this month's edition of "How's the Market in Steiner Ranch."  If you'd prefer to review the monthly stats in text or chart formats, those can be found below the video.

If you are looking to buy or sell a home in Steiner Ranch, contact me via email or at 512-650-7300. Previous editions of How’s the Market in Steiner Ranch are also available.  If you prefer to read instead of watch, here are the chart and transcript.

Greetings!  I'm Craig Smyser with 1835 Realty.  Welcome to the July 2022 edition of "How's the Market in Steiner Ranch.”  To quote Bob Dylan, “The Times They Are A-Changin.’  Let’s run through the June stats, then talk about the June market because they are two different things.  And be forewarned, this month’s video is longer than most.

In June, 18 resale homes closed in Steiner Ranch which was down 38% from June 2021.  The median price in June increased year-over-year by 46% to $1,120,500.  The average price of a home increased 20% to $1,181,259.  The average price per square foot increased by 13% to $352.22.  The reason these numbers are so high is that in June 2021, almost 2/3 of the homes that sold were in neighborhoods that are at or below the mid-point of Steiner.  Yet in 2022, fewer than half were in that range.  That makes the almost 50% jump higher than what it really is and not a perfect measure of the market over the past year.  That’s one reason I like to look at a longer timeframe – so we can get a smoother picture.  Looking at the first six months of 2022, the number of resale homes sold is 100, down 32% from the first half of last year.  The median price of a home has increased 38% to $1,093,000. The average price increased by 25% to $1,180,261.  The average price per square foot increased 25 % to $352.36.  I think these six month numbers are a good measure of what I see in the marketplace.  But… last month, I said that I expected we would start to see prices come down a bit.  Because of the lag from contract to close to reporting the sale figures, we don’t yet see it statistically.  However, with what I saw in June, I’m absolutely convinced prices are declining already.  Let me share some more data with you to back it up.

The number of available resale homes at the end of June was 49, up from 19 last June.  But, more importantly, that was up about 150% month-over-month because we had 20 homes available at the end of May.  There were more homes available at the end of June than at any time since September 2019.  The inventory we all were hoping for during the past two years, well, it’s finally arrived.  In fact, 49 new listings hit the market in June, an increase of 44% over last June.  In fact, to find a comparable number of new listings, you’ve got to back to the 48 we had in May 2019.  While more inventory would have been welcome in the past, the problem is the number of buyers has fallen dramatically.  In June, just 13 homes went under contract – when normally it would be 2 to 3 times that many.  With the imbalance of supply and demand having inverted so quickly, a decline in prices is inevitable.  We didn’t see it this month, and I think it will be close as to whether or not we see it in the July sales figures, but we will see it soon.

The average sales price to list price ratio was 103.6% and for homes that closed in June, the average days on market was 9, up from 7 last year.  Across Steiner, the June sales ranged from a low of $660,000 to a high of $2,043,825.   All of these are still pretty much what we’ve experienced over the past two years, but I expect to see the list price ratio to drop under 100% next month and days on market will probably double and increase for a while longer.

One statistic that I don’t think I’ve ever reported in the almost 12 years I’ve been doing these monthly videos is the number of price reductions.  But this month, I want to mention it to drive home how the supply & demand is changing.  During June, there were 39 price reductions on homes in Steiner.  Compare that with just 7 in June 2021 – over a five fold increase.  Even just the prior month of May, there were 12 so this is more than a three fold increase in just one month.  Again, lower prices are coming.

So while this sounds like a lot of doom and gloom, I want to pull back and look at the big picture.  The market we experienced over the past two years was unsustainable.  Our market was due for a slowdown, though I am concerned with how fast it has slowed.  As I speak with other agents around the country (which I do in a formal setting every two weeks), only a few markets are not slowing down.  However, none has slowed as much as the overall Austin market.  Obviously, the interest rate hikes have reduced the buying power of buyers.  As prices begin to come down, buyers who don’t have to buy immediately are understandably wanting to hold off a bit to see just how far down prices will come dome.  It is incredibly difficult to time the market, but I completely understand waiting a few months in our current environment to see how the inflation numbers look, how the Federal Reserve responds, whether we’re already in a recession, and what the prices do in the short term.  In the long and medium term, I expect the Steiner real estate market to do quite well.  The question mark is the short term.  How much will prices pull back and how long will the short term will last.  There are always buyers who need to buy and there are great homes on the market right now.  But unlike in the recent past, even the great homes can take a while to sell.

If you have any real estate related questions, please don’t hesitate to call or text me at 512-650-7300 or email me at [email protected].  Thanks for reading “How’s The Market in Steiner Ranch.”

Statistics based upon information from ACTRIS for the periods cited.