Predicting Mortgage Rates

They don’t know what they are talking about! Before we check out the 2023 mortgage rate forecasts, let’s look at the track record of the economists at some pretty notable industry titans. Currently, the 30-year mortgage rate is around 6.5%. But a year ago, Fannie Mae predicted it would be 3.3% right now. Freddie Mac envisioned a rate of 3.5%. The National Association of Realtors also had 3.5% in their crystal ball. The best prognostication came from The Mortgage Bankers Association with a 4% rate. So now we’re supposed to believe their predictions for where mortgage rates will be at the end of 2023? The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts 5.4%, while Freddie Mac thinks 6.2%, Fannie Mae at 6.5%, and NAR thinks “close to 7%.” While I don’t know where rates will be, it’s probably a safe bet to say it won’t be any of those four numbers.

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