May 2010 Housing Stats

The May housing statistics were released today (the national numbers are provided by the National Association of Realtors while the Texas numbers are from The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University). 

Nationally, the number of homes sold compared to April 2010 declined 2.2%.  On a year-over-year basis, the number of homes sold in May 2010 increased by 19.2% over May 2009.  The year-over-year increase owes credit to the buyer tax credits that ended in April, but houses under contract have until June 30 to close.  Numerous "experts" were surprised by the month-to-month drop as they had expected an increase.  Wait until they see the July sales numbers (which are reported in August)!  46% of the buyers in May were first-time buyers (14% were investors and 40% were repeat).  Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) accounted for 31% of the national sales in May(down from 33% the previous month).  75% of the sales were financed with a mortgage.

The Austin numbers look good.  Compared to May 2009, the number of homes sold was up a very solid 23.3%.  Austin has now shown 9 months in a row of year-over-year comparison increases (prior to this streak we had 27 months in a row of declines for the year-over-year numbers).  I expect that we will see this trend continue in June.  However, I expect this number to turn down in July.  Unlike the national numbers, compared with the prior month, the May sales were up 2.0%.  Prices, however, were down (see chart below).  With the expiration of the buyer tax credits, the number of contracts accepted so far in June is running at about two-thirds the rate of April (which is better than the May numbers).  Given the time it takes to close on a house, we won't see this drop noted in the stats until the next month or two.

In Texas, the May sales figures show a mixed bag.  The year-over-year comparison to May 2009 shows a sales increase, but less than Austin and the nation.  The median and average prices were mixed, but both hovered near flat.

May 2010 Existing Home Sales

* National numbers are seasonally adjusted so no year-to-date numbers are provided.