The July housing statistics were released today (the national numbers are provided by the National Association of Realtors while the Texas numbers are from The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University).

In short, the numbers were terrible.  Of course, this was expected because of the hangover left from the buyer tax credits.  The numbers were the worst in the lower price ranges which were the prime targets of the tax credit recipients.

Nationally, the number of homes sold last month compared to June 2010 declined 27.2%.  On a year-over-year basis, the number of homes sold in July 2010 dropped by 25.5% over July 2009.  The July levels were the lowest since May 1995.  I expect that we'll see poor numbers through at least November.  38% of the buyers in July were first-time buyers (19% were investors and 43% were repeat).  Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) accounted for 32% of the national sales in July (unchanged from June and up slightly from 31% in July 2009).  70% of the sales were financed with a mortgage.

The Austin numbers look pretty similar.  Compared to July 2009, the number of homes sold was down 27.4%.  This is the second month in a row that this number has declined (after 9 months of increases).  I expect that the next few months will also show declines.   Prices, however, were up significantly (see chart below).  This does not mean that prices have jumped in Austin.  Because the tax credits skewed to the lower side of the housing market, far fewer of those sold in July.  As a result, the percentage of homes with higher prices increased, tilting the average and median prices.  The number of contracts being accepted on homes continues to decline (down by 17%).

July 2010 Existing Home Sales

  Austin Texas USA
Number of Homes Sold

 

    
vs. July 2009 -27.4% -25.5% -25.5%
vs. June 2010 -25.1% -23.0% -27.2%
Year-to-Date vs. 2009 8.3% 3.2% *
Year-to-Date vs. 2008 -12.0% -14.6% *
       
Price of Homes Sold      
Average vs. July 2009 17.1% 7.3% 2.2%
Median vs. July 2009 13.8% 0.7% 0.7%
       
Housing Inventory      
Months Supply vs. July 2009 5.7% 8.1% 31.6%
# Homes for Sale vs. July 2009 16.5% 14.1% -1.9%

* National numbers are seasonally adjusted so no year-to-date numbers are provided.